🛢️ Yuge Oil

Happy Sunday to everyone on The Street. 

It took its sweet time, but sweater season has finally arrived. Here are some stocks I’m giving a second look as the weather nears peak cozy.

(But keep in mind, my analysis accounts for one KPI and one KPI only: vibes.)

• Yankee Candle-owner Newell Brands (NWL). Autumn just isn’t the same without a flickering candle, preferably vanilla-scented and wood wick.

• Mall mainstay Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF). I mean, have you seen their FW24 cardigans?

• Celestial Seasonings-parent Hain Celestial (HAIN). Starbucks (SBUX) may have a more expansive slate of holiday beverages. But to me, winter tastes like Sleepytime Tea.

Before we dive in, here’s a quick word from our sponsor:

Sponsored By 10 East

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Benefits of 10 East membership include:     

• Flexibility – members have full discretion over whether to invest on an offering-by-offering basis.   

• Alignment – principals commit material personal capital to every offering.    

• Institutional resources – a dedicated investment team that sources, monitors, and diligences each offering.  

10 East is where founders, executives, and portfolio managers from industry-leading firms diversify their personal portfolios. 

Join with complimentary access at 10east.co

Was Biden Better for Big Oil?

Not Everyone Wants Fewer Rules

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to get rid of many Biden-era regulations on the oil industry. Trump recently nominated Chris Wright as energy secretary, which signals that, as expected, his administration will have a very pro-drilling approach. 

But is that actually as good for Big Oil as it sounds? Maybe not.

Both Exxon Mobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE) have come out in support of methane emissions regulation, a policy under Joe Biden’s presidency that may be scrapped by the new administration.

Big Vs. Small

Large oil producers tend to support regulation, as many smaller companies are unable to afford compliance. This often drives them out of business or forces them to sell to larger companies. 

For example, both PDC Energy and Callon Petroleum, which had high methane emissions, were acquired by bigger companies — Chevron (CVX) and APA Corporation (APA), respectively.

Additionally, Trump is planning to roll back regulations regarding the use of federal land for drilling, which adversely impacted smaller companies.

Are Democrats the Party of Big Oil?

Despite Biden’s push for green energy, large oil companies thrived under his administration, generating $330 billion in free cash flow from 2020 to 2024. Under Trump’s first presidency, they generated just $91 billion. 

The pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine certainly played a role in that low number under Trump. But his policies likely had a lot to do with it, too.

Historically, traditional energy has performed better under Democrats. Many energy companies are probably celebrating Trump's win. Big Oil might not be.

Roku’s Bounceback

Flipping the Script

Roku (ROKU) has lagged this year, down nearly 25% YTD. But Baird’s Vikram Kesavabhotla isn’t dissuaded. The analyst just lifted his price target to $90 and assigned the stock an Outperform rating.

According to Kesavabhotla, Roku is poised for growth as the world continues to adopt streaming. Roku already has 86 million active accounts and that number could continue to grow.

Kesavabhotla also cited content fragmentation and increased monetization efforts as catalysts for growth.

A Strategic Shift

The streaming company’s strategy changes and overall industry trends have Kesavabhotla optimistic about Roku’s future.

For instance, the company recently waded into the advertising business, by introducing video ads on its home screen. It also unveiled new landing pages.

Additionally, Kesavabhotla trumpeted Roku’s management, citing their disciplined approach toward expenses, which could provide the company with consistent operating leverage.

Brighter Days Ahead

The Baird analyst believes Roku should generate sustained double-digit revenue growth and increase its margins.

Of the 32 analysts covering the stock, just 13 have given it a Buy or Strong Buy rating. Nonetheless, Roku’s average price target suggests more than 15% upside from Friday’s close, so Wall Street seems to believe there are brighter days ahead for the stock.

Evercore’s Best Bets

Top Tech Stocks

Evercore ISI just dropped a list of its top tech stocks for 2025.

The tech industry has boomed thus far this year, largely thanks to AI. Information technology is up around 33% YTD and has played a huge role in driving S&P index gains. 

However, some investors are starting to question whether that growth justifies the sky-high valuations that come with purchasing many tech stocks. While some correction could be on the horizon, Evercore has hand-picked stocks it thinks could hold their value in 2025.

Arista Networks

Arista Networks (ANET) made the list. According to Evercore’s analysts, the computer networking company’s conservative revenue guidance has left the door open for upside potential. 

Evercore believes Arista Networks’ customer expansion, front-end growth, back-end AI capabilities, and Cognitive campus workspaces service will drive the stock higher in 2025. 

The firm has set a 12-month price target of $450, representing roughly 11% upside from Wednesday’s close. The stock is up more than 70% YTD.

Vertiv Holdings

Evercore also likes Vertiv Holdings (VRT), a digital infrastructure tech company it thinks could be a long-term beneficiary of the AI revolution. Shares are up more than 190% in 2024, thanks to the AI boom and the company’s ability to provide infrastructure to data centers. 

Evercore’s analysts believe Vertiv stands to benefit from the continued construction of data centers as it continues to increase its profits. The advisory firm expects Vertiv’s margins to come in around 25% and lifted its price target to $150, good for some 7% upside from Friday’s close. 

Whatever the new year holds, Evercore is bullish on these tech stocks.

Sponsored By 10 East

Where Sophisticated Investors Access Private Markets

10 East, led by Michael Leffell, allows qualified individuals to invest alongside private market veterans in vetted deals across private credit, real estate, niche venture/private equity, and other one-off investments that aren’t typically available through traditional channels.    

Benefits of 10 East membership include:     

• Flexibility – members have full discretion over whether to invest on an offering-by-offering basis.   

• Alignment – principals commit material personal capital to every offering.    

• Institutional resources – a dedicated investment team that sources, monitors, and diligences each offering.  

10 East is where founders, executives, and portfolio managers from industry-leading firms diversify their personal portfolios. 

Join with complimentary access at 10east.co

Last Week’s Poll Results

Are you bullish or bearish on Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐻 Bearish

Are you bullish or bearish on Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY) over the next 12 months?

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🐂 Bullish

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐻 Bearish

Which stock do you think will outperform over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Micronics (MJPNF)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Towa Corp (TOWCF)

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ SoftBank Group (SFTBY)