Hi All - Happy Saturday and welcome back to Street Tweets from The Street Sheet. 

“The 2024 election may go down in history as the last election when we paid more attention to self-anointed election experts than to prediction markets,” The Wall Street Journal writes.

That’s because odds on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were more accurate than incumbent pollsters and pundits like Nate Silver.

If that’s the case, then it’s worth paying attention to other trends on these platforms. For example, according to Kalshi, over the last month, prediction markets have raised their Bitcoin price target from $77,000 to $128,000.

There’s even a 10% chance the blue-chip crypto will surpass $150,00 by the end of this year. Of course, predictions are just that: predictions. What do you think? Reply to this email and let us know. On to the show.

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Market Review:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite achieved new highs on Friday after November's job report slightly exceeded expectations without signaling enough heat to deter the Federal Reserve from potentially lowering interest rates later this month.

The S&P 500 inched up 0.25% to close at 6,090.27, while the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, finishing at 19,859.77, with strong performances from Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Amazon. Both indexes set intraday and closing records, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 123.19 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 44,642.52.

For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their third consecutive weekly gains, climbing 0.96% and 3.34%, respectively, while the Dow slid 0.6%.

Friday's labor data revealed 227,000 new nonfarm jobs in November, surpassing the estimated 214,000 and significantly higher than October's revised 36,000 increase. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, aligning with expectations.

Market expectations for another rate cut strengthened, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicating an 85% probability of such a move in the next two weeks.

Market Preview:

On Monday, December 9, Wholesale Inventories data for October will be released at 10:00 AM ET.

Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 6:00 AM ET and Q3 U.S. Productivity revisions at 8:30 AM ET.

On Wednesday, December 11, November inflation data will dominate, including CPI, Core CPI, and year-over-year comparisons at 8:30 AM ET, followed by the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 2:00 PM ET.

Thursday, December 12, features Initial Jobless Claims for December 7 and November’s PPI, Core PPI, and year-over-year comparisons, all at 8:30 AM ET.

Finally, Friday, December 13, will round out the week with the November Import Price Index and Fuel Import Price Index at 8:30 AM ET. These updates will shed light on inflation, productivity, labor markets, and fiscal trends, providing valuable insights for policymakers and markets.

This is wild to be completely honest with you.

For what it’s worth according to JPMorgan, “a popular standard for budgeting rent is to follow the 30% rule, where you spend a maximum of 30% of your monthly income before taxes (your gross income) on your rent.

This has been a rule of thumb since 1981, when the government found that people who spent over 30% of their income on housing were ‘cost-burdened.’”

Tough year to be a WBA holder.

The Dollar Tree decline is surprising—one would expect higher inflation and rising costs to drive consumers toward discount outlets for savings. This is what we found:

• Persistent inflation and elevated interest rates have strained low-income consumers, leading to reduced discretionary spending, according to The Financial Times (Subscription needed)

• Intensified competition from retail giants such as Walmart and Target, along with online discount platforms like Temu and Shein, has eroded Dollar Tree's market share. These competitors offer a broader range of products, often at comparable or lower prices, challenging Dollar Tree's value proposition. (New York Post)

• Recent executive departures, including CEO Rick Dreiling due to health issues and CFO Jeff Davis stepping down, have created uncertainty regarding the company's strategic direction. Such leadership changes during critical periods can unsettle investors and impact stock performance. (MarketWatch)

Poor Cassandra.

To be fair: Since Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management disclosed a $3.3 million investment in Geo Group in August 2022, the private prison operator's stock has surged over 250%.

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Pas bon

Fun fact though: The Paris Bourse, now known as Euronext Paris, was established in 1724, making it one of the oldest stock exchanges in Europe.

You’re welcome.

TRIVIA

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