👾 Pix and Shovels

Plus, are mini liquor bottle sales an overlooked recession indicator?

Happy Friday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

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S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

MARKET MOVERS

NVIDIA, Tesla, DocuSign

$NVDA ( ▼ 1.58% ) Nvidia Stock Rises. New Evidence Shows the AI Trade Is Alive and Well. (Barron’s)

$TSLA ( ▼ 3.51% ) Exclusive: Tesla plans Model Y costing at least 20% less to produce to defend China share, sources say (Reuters)

$DOCU ( ▼ 2.89% ) Shares of DocuSign surge on strong earnings, AI boost (CNBC)

$ULTA ( ▼ 2.94% ) Ulta Beauty: Strong EPS, Revenue Gains (The Motley Fool)

$SMTC ( ▼ 5.14% ) Semtech Shares Soar After Better-Than-Expected Q4 Results (Benzinga)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

WSJ: US consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since 2022 in mid-March, driven by concerns over Trump policies and higher inflation.

The Hill: Senator Chuck Schumer said he will vote to advance a Republican six-month government funding bill, lowering the likelihood of a shutdown.

CNN: Gold prices hit an historic $3,000 an ounce, driven by demand for safe-haven assets amid similar concerns.

WaPo: The White House has asked Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire. Here are Moscow’s demands to end the war.

CNBC: Canadian PM Mark Carney roundly rejected Trump's intimations that Canada could become the 51st US state.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

Pix and Shovels

Virtual Value Play

Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 1.1% ) miner Iren $IREN ( ▼ 6.04% ) has seen its stock plummet this year, down almost 27% YTD. Now JPMorgan $JPM ( ▼ 2.12% ) thinks it's time for investors to grab their pixelated picks and shovels. 

Analyst Reginald Smith recently upgraded the stock to Overweight with a price target of $12, representing an upside of 66.66%. Smith believes Iren is “the lowest-cost publicly traded Bitcoin miner.”

Tough Times

The stock, like most crypto-adjacent investments, has struggled to start the year amid widespread uncertainty stemming from the new Trump administration.

In the immediate aftermath of the 2024 election, major cryptocurrency tokens including Bitcoin soared to record highs. But they have since crashed back down to earth amid tariff uncertainty, inflationary fears, and Fed policy concerns. $1 trillion has been erased from the crypto market in the past month, as investors race to de-risk their portfolios.

Despite Trump’s promises to create a federal crypto reserve, the crypto market appears to be waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further. But Fed Chair Powell has said that inflation is proving more stubborn than the central bank hoped, and those cuts may still be a ways off.

So, with the crypto sector buried deep underground, why is JPM still so bullish on a Bitcoin mining stock?

Powered Up

The bank pointed to Iren’s “attractive power contracts” and called the company a leading operator in the Bitcoin mining sector.

JPM also pointed to the firm’s broader exposure to electrical infrastructure and data center operation. Many market observers expect demand for these services to balloon as AI tools continue to evolve and proliferate.

The biggest bank in America isn’t Iren’s only bull. 10 of 12 analysts covering the stock rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. And its average price target implies more than 200% upside from its current price.

Are you bullish or bearish on Iren (IREN) over the next 12 months?

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Invest now before their next phase of growth.

ON OUR RADAR

CNBC: Trump’s proposed 200% tariffs on European alcohol could harm US drinks makers, but may unexpectedly benefit the struggling beer industry.

Reuters: As Trump's trade war raises recession fears, global investors are turning to Chinese equities, drawn by low prices, AI prospects, and potential stimulus.

AP: Vaccinating poultry could help reduce egg prices by controlling bird flu, but the US has hesitated due to concerns over the impact on chicken exports.

Bloomberg: Gen Z Americans lack enough savings to cover even one month of spending, highlighting their vulnerability in a potential economic downturn.

WSJ: While the jobs report provides insight, other indicators may offer early signs of a recession — such as mini liquor bottle sales.

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Which stock do you think will outperform in 2025?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 4.88% )  

🟨🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ Domino’s Pizza $DPZ ( ▼ 5.13% )  

🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ PepsiCo $PEP ( ▼ 0.27% )  

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