♟️ Losing Strategy

Plus, Dorothy, we're not in a 'vibecession' anymore...

Happy Wednesday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

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S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

MARKET MOVERS

Amazon, Newsmax, Petco

$AMZN ( ▼ 7.83% ) Amazon Said to Make a Bid to Buy TikTok in the U.S. (NYT)

$NMAX ( ▲ 9.5% ) Conservative cable channel Newsmax shares plunge more than 70% after a dizzying 2-day surge (CNBC)

$WOOF ( ▼ 10.18% ) Petco rallies after its CEO scoops up more shares (SeekingAlpha)

$DJT ( ▲ 0.32% ) Shares in Trump social media company sink following concerns about insider selloff (ABC)

$CRWV ( ▼ 12.57% ) CoreWeave shares soar past IPO price on third trading day (Reuters)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: President Trump reportedly informed his Cabinet last week that Elon Musk will depart his administration role in the coming months.

Reuters: Trump also imposed a new 25% tariff on canned beer imports and empty aluminum cans, ahead of his planned Liberation Day remarks.

WSJ: Tesla's deliveries fell 13% in the first quarter, reflecting the increasing backlash against the brand and CEO Elon Musk.

Bloomberg: A federal judge permanently dismissed corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams.

CNN: A US Senate investigative subcommittee launched a review into Meta’s $META ( ▼ 6.49% ) efforts to access the Chinese market.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

Strategy’s Losing Strategy

Potential Downside

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 10.26% ) may have dropped the “Micro” from its name. But sell-side brokerage Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co thinks the company is only going to get more micro from here.

The firm thinks founder Michael Saylor’s approach to acquiring Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 6.06% ) is limited, and has downgraded the stock to sell as a result. Its $220 price target implies nearly 30% downside from current price levels.

According to analyst Gus Galá, the firm was bearish on several aspects of the company when it initiated coverage. Now it simply believes that the convertible issuance strategy Strategy employs is no longer viable.

Waning Excitement

Strategy has a goal of raising $42 billion in three years. Of that, $21 billion will consist of equity and the other half of the fixed income, with an equivalent amount of Bitcoin purchased.

Its recent earnings report unveiled that it is turning to primarily fixed-income issues, because it is so far ahead in its plan and has already raised over $18 billion through stock issues.

According to Galá, this could be an issue as investor excitement surrounding the company’s income securities has been less-than-stellar, and could impact its ability to purchase Bitcoin.

Purchasing Problems

Strategy tends to trade as a Bitcoin proxy, often above the value of its Bitcoin holdings, because investors believe its Bitcoin-per-share holdings will continue to grow. Should that prove not to be true, the stock price could take a major hit.

The stock is up nearly 100% over the past 12 months and around 90% over the past six. If Galá is correct, it could present an attractive short opportunity.

Are you bullish or bearish on MicroStrategy (MSTR) over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

CNN: Nintendo officially announced the Switch 2. Now, it must prove it can deliver another blockbuster hit at a significantly higher price.

WSJ: After Wisconsin voters rejected Elon Musk's effort to support a conservative Supreme Court nominee, some in the GOP are turning on the billionaire.

Bloomberg: The EU is preparing emergency measures to protect its economy from the potential impact of US President Trump's sweeping tariffs.

AP: Despite TikTok's ban earlier this year, no one is challenging Trump's executive order that allowed the platform to continue. Here’s why.

Fortune: Kyla Scanlon, the Gen Z economic commentator who coined "vibecession," says we’re not in one, as there’s no disconnect between sentiment and data.

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Chinese consumer stocks over the next 12 months?

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🐂 Bullish

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bullish

    • “Trump didn't win the last trade war and won't win this one either.”

    • “Bullish if Trump stays quiet.”

  • 🐻 Bearish — 

    • “Chinese government attitude to industry is far more positive than Trumpism. Trump will poison many wells!”

    • “I'm sure certain Chinese stocks will do well; but some of their companies have a reputation for less than stellar accounting practices, etc., leading to a sort of Chinese food 'headache' effect....”

    • “It's too late to catch the Chinese stock bump.”

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