✅ Written by Austin DeNoce, Markets Reporter, Walk-On Holdings

✅ Edited by Casimir Stone, Creative Director Walk-On Holdings

For the Fourth Week In June, the Markets Will Be Watching…

… a couple of financial reports that will no doubt factor into the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. 

First, the final revision of Q1 GDP will come in on Thursday, June 28. Initial estimates saw the U.S. economy growing at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter, which was then downwardly revised to 1.3%. 

That marked a steep decline from the economy’s surprising growth through the tail end of last year: 3.4% in Q4 2023 and 4.9% in Q3. If the final calculation confirms this downward trajectory, it will be the lowest quarterly growth since Q2 2022, when the economy briefly contracted as pandemic-induced inflation set in. 

The following day, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is due. This report contains the core PCE reading, the inflation metric most closely watched by the Fed. As such, it can often be predictive of future central bank policy decisions.

In April, core PCE rose just 0.2% month-over-month, the slowest growth all year to date. Meanwhile, the annual rate sat at just 2.8%, the lowest in more than three years. 

With that in mind, the back half of the week will be huge for investors attempting to predict the Fed’s next move. If the GDP, core PCE, or both come in at or below expectations, it could finally give the central bank the confidence needed to bring interest rates back down to size.

Also on the economic calendar…

Monday, June 24

A look at business activity in Texas, in the form of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, which hit a four-month low last month.

Tuesday, June 25

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a measure of property prices in 20 cities across the country. In March, home prices jumped by 7.4% annually, led by an 11.1% gain in San Diego.

In earnings, cruise operator Carnival Corporation and FedEx will report.

Wednesday, June 26

Insights into the housing market will keep rolling in with U.S. new home sales and the weekly update to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which currently hovers just above 7%.

Consumer goods giant General Mills, investment bank Jefferies Financial Group, apparel company Levi Strauss & Co, and chipmaker Micron Technology will hand in report cards.

Thursday, June 27

Durable goods orders are due. This measure of manufacturing demand for big-ticket items like transport equipment and appliances sometimes forecasts future consumer spending data.

McCormick & Company, Nike, and Walgreens Boots Alliance will report earnings.

Friday, June 28

In addition to core PCE, the PCE Price Index will provide personal income data for May, as well as headline PCE, an inflation metric including more volatile variables like energy and food costs.