💵 Dollar's Last Hurrah?

Plus, high vacancies, low leases—AI startups are seizing the moment in SF.

Happy Friday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

  • 🟨 | US stocks were mixed on Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new intraday highs after November jobs data exceeded expectations, boosting hopes for a Fed rate cut.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Lululemon surged 15.9% after beating Wall Street's fiscal Q3 estimates and providing in-line holiday season guidance.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: AMC Entertainment fell 9.2% after agreeing to sell up to 50 million shares, following a boost from "Roaring Kitty" on X.

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S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

MARKET MOVERS

Petco, Docusign, Asana

WOOF (+8%) Petco Stock Jumps as Q3 Results Beat Estimates (Investopedia)

DOCU (+27.9%) DocuSign (DOCU) Stock Surges on Strong Quarterly Results (GuruFocus)

ASAN (+43.6%) Asana Stock Soars 45% After Earnings. It Was More Than Just Profit and Revenue. (Barron’s)

VSCO (+11.6%) Victoria's Secret Stock Rises as Lingerie Maker Ups Outlook (Investopedia)

RBRK (+20.4%) Hot Cybersecurity IPO Pops On Q3 Earnings Beat, Raised Guidance (IBD)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: Uber, in partnership with WeRide, will launch a robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi, starting with human safety drivers overseeing rides.

WSJ: Amazon's new AI-driven, 3-million-square-foot warehouse in Shreveport still relies on thousands of human workers alongside automation.

AP: A U.S. appeals court upheld a law requiring TikTok to sever ties with ByteDance or face a ban by mid-January, rejecting the company's First Amendment challenge.

QZ: UnitedHealthcare and other insurers removed executive info online after CEO Brian Thompson's fatal shooting.

Reuters: Walmart, Amazon, Shein, and Temu saw record Black Friday sales, while Target and Best Buy struggled, spending data shows.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

UBS is Betting Against the Dollar

Time to Sell

The US dollar has been rising, thanks to the US economy outperformance of its peers and Donald Trump’s election victory. However,  UBS analysts are cautioning against betting on its continued gains. In fact, they are advocating betting against it. 

UBS wealth management strategists, led by Dominic Schnider, suggest selling the dollar’s upside potential for yield pickup.

Ignoring the Bad

The investment firm believes that markets have already priced in all the positive news surrounding the dollar. At the same time, investors are largely ignoring the risks surrounding the trade tariffs Trump has proposed. 

UBS says that the tariffs, as well as strict immigration policies, will ultimately be a net negative for the US economy in terms of long-term growth. 

Longview, a London-based investment firm, agrees with UBS and said that investor confidence in the dollar is now at unsustainable levels.

How to Trade

UBS is suggesting investors sell the downside against the euro falling below $1.05, the British pound below $1.25, and the Australian dollar below $0.63. It also suggests buying the Swiss franc above 0.90 against the dollar.

It also warned investors to be wary of currencies that are closely tied to exports to the US, such as the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar.

Are you bullish or bearish on the dollar over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

CNBC: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy urge Congress for major spending cuts, but slashing entitlements remains a tough legislative hurdle.

Axios: November hiring rebounded, but rising unemployment and labor force exits signal cracks despite wage growth and job gains.

CNBC: AI startups are leasing San Francisco offices, bringing employees back in-person to combat Zoom fatigue and take advantage of low rent.

BI: Insurers face $135 billion in losses from global climate disasters in 2024, marking the fifth straight year of losses over $100 billion.

AP: China's ban on key materials for tech products could disrupt global manufacturing and supply chains, escalating the tech trade war with the U.S.

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Roku (ROKU) over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish (50)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐻 Bearish (14)

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