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🚢 Deep Dive: How To Bet on an Aging Population
Expanding life spans and declining birth rates pose a challenge for the economy — but they may create opportunities for investors.
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Happy Saturday afternoon to everyone on The Street.
And, welcome back to our new deep dive edition, in which we’ll double-click on a sector, metric, or other investing-related topic we feel isn’t getting the shine it deserves.
Our fast-paced modern culture has a bad habit of overlooking the elderly. But when investors do, it may be their loss. Read on for more.
Before we dive in, it's almost the last day of the month, which means it's time for the Last Cast Letter. This month, we're examining if real estate is driving obesity and depression rates higher. One-click subscribe to read about "America's Missing Middle," which will drop in your inbox on Sunday.
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TOGETHER WITH PROSPERITY PUB
You’ve probably heard from a number of “crypto gurus” about how we’re at the cusp of what could be the greatest crypto bull run in history.
With quotes like that flying around, we’re not surprised that’s the case. But you see… You might not actually want to buy Bitcoin this time around.
That’s because there’s a better way to take advantage of this new bull market… One market expert calls it Crypto’s Hidden Gem
And it’s a new way that has given folks the chance to see bigger and faster moves than the traditional way of buying Bitcoin…
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/e5ba5e03-9577-4f40-b995-d061b749dbb9/Screenshot_2024-06-24_at_7.39.08_PM.png?t=1719272432)
Problem or Opportunity?
The aging population problem has been well-documented in recent years. Life expectancy is increasing and birth rates are decreasing in most industrialized countries. Longer lifespans are a great thing for individuals, families, and communities. But for economies? Not so much.
For one thing, more seniors will tap into Social Security and pension funds for longer, stretching those crucial safety nets. Meanwhile, fewer young workers will be on hand to contribute to those funds. A shrinking working-age population can also lead to labor shortages and affect overall productivity.
Then, as older people require more medical services, an aging population puts pressure on healthcare systems. Finally, fewer births leave fewer young people to care for their elders, pressuring household budgets as well.
These issues aren’t isolated to the United States. In European countries like Italy and Finland, roughly 1 in 4 citizens are already 65 or older. In Japan, that ratio rises to nearly 1 in 3.
In other words, no matter where you go, the aging population problem isn’t going away — unless, of course, you think of it as an opportunity instead.
Rising to the Challenge
In America, when a challenge appears, it’s a safe bet a company will rise to meet it. But which one will solve the aging population problem — or, at least, profit from it?
Some would point to the pharma sector.
Companies like Amgen (AMGN) have recently grabbed headlines — and analyst upgrades — for stepping into the weight-loss drug arena. But Amgen’s real strength may be its suite of treatments for geriatric syndromes like osteoporosis and rheumatoid arthritis. Amgen shares currently trade on 15x forecast earnings for the next 12 months, making it a particularly popular pick among value-focused fund managers.
Alternatively, you might look to the proverbial pickaxes, rather than the gold; in this case, the health insurance industry.
Despite its mega-cap status, analysts are nearly unanimously bullish on UnitedHealth Group (UNH). Of the 31 firms covering the stock, 0 rate it Underweight or Sell, while a whopping 22 rate it Buy, largely based on expectations of continued customer (and top-line) growth as the population ages. Analysts also cite strong cash flow and its AI investments.
Of course, the world’s largest insurance company by net premiums — and the heaviest-weighted component of the Dow to boot — isn’t exactly a sneaky stock pick. But if unsung is more your speed, look no further than a one-time meme stock: Carnival Corporation (CCL).
Cruising to the Future
Carnival has had a seasickness-inducing few years. The cruise line operator is down roughly 60% since the pandemic. But, most of the headwinds it faced at the start of 2020 can be traced back to that once-in-a-lifetime event, and Carnival appears to be leaving those challenges in its wake.
This past week, Carnival reported second-quarter earnings. The company turned a surprise profit of 11 cents per share, a far cry from consensus expectations of a 1 cent loss. This growth was driven by record bookings, suggesting a blockbuster year for the industry may be on the horizon.
The cruise line’s stock surged in response to the earnings, but remains below the average price target of more than $20, based on recent reviews from Truist, UBS, and Wells Fargo.
It could be cruising toward a brighter future, too. Passengers aged 50 and above comprise half of all cruise passengers, per market data from Cruise Lines International Association. With its largest demographic of customers on the rise, Carnival may yet reach or exceed its pre-pandemic highs.
According to JPMorgan analysts, who assign the stock an Overweight rating with a price target of $21, CCL represents a “multi-year portfolio opportunity.”
TOGETHER WITH PROSPERITY PUB
You’ve probably heard from a number of “crypto gurus” about how we’re at the cusp of what could be the greatest crypto bull run in history.
With quotes like that flying around, we’re not surprised that’s the case. But you see… You might not actually want to buy Bitcoin this time around.
That’s because there’s a better way to take advantage of this new bull market… One market expert calls it Crypto’s Hidden Gem
And it’s a new way that has given folks the chance to see bigger and faster moves than the traditional way of buying Bitcoin…
Long in the ETF
For investors who want to bet on this increasingly inevitable age phenomenon without placing all their chips on green, fear not: there’s an ETF for that.
BlackRock’s iShares Aging Population UCITS ETF (IUAGF) takes positions in a range of companies capitalizing on the growing needs of an aging population. The fund invests in everything from consumer staples to industrials to real estate, with a particular emphasis on healthcare and financial sectors.
The financial stocks in the portfolio tend to be major wealth management institutions like Charles Schwab (SCHW), poised to benefit from ballooning nest eggs and rising demand for retirement planning.
Meanwhile, the ETF’s healthcare investments offer exposure to challenger brands like biotech firm Argenx (ARGX), which develops antibody-based treatments for autoimmune disorders. Its shares surged earlier this week after its drug targeting CIDP — which most commonly affects people over 50 — received FDA approval.
This unique balance may just prove an effective counterweight to an increasingly top-heavy population.
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