❄️ Cold Gold

Plus, the newly-minted #1 crypto broker might surprise you...

Happy Thursday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

  • 🟩 | US stocks rose today on a big batch of fresh earnings and better-than-expected tariff news.

  • 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Shares of last year’s Nasdaq breakout AppLovin (APP) popped 24% on a blockbuster beat and raise.

  • 📉 | One Notable Decliner: Digital marketing firm The Trade Desk’s (TTD) stock plummeted 33% following its first revenue miss in years.

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The A.I. sector is a whirlwind of activity right now.

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The next wave of A.I. stocks is emerging — shifting focus from infrastructure buildouts to companies poised to explode by integrating A.I. into their operations.

S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

MARKET MOVERS

NVIDIA, Datadog, GE Healthcare

NVDA (+3.2%) NVIDIA Shares Climb as HPE Rolls Out Revolutionary AI Solution (YF)

DDOG (-8.2%) Datadog falls after outlook seen below estimates (SeekingAlpha)

GEHC (+8.8%) GE HealthCare forecasts upbeat 2025 profit on steady medical device demand (Reuters)

WST (-38.2%) West Pharmaceutical's Bleak Forecast Sends Shares Plummeting (Finimize)

MGM (+17.5%) MGM Climbs as Earnings Get Lift From China and Strong Growth Expectations Buoy the Stock (Barron’s)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNN: President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, but delayed them until April, allowing nations time to negotiate.

CNBC: The producer price index rose 0.4% in January, slightly above the expected 0.3%, another sign of sticky inflation.

Bloomberg: About 75,000 federal employees accepted the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation offer, short of expectations.

WSJ: Elon Musk's X agreed to pay $10M to settle a lawsuit filed by Donald Trump over his deplatforming following the Jan. 6 riot.

Reuters: Musk plans to withdraw his bid for OpenAI if the ChatGPT-maker remains a non-profit, but the OpenAI board rejects the offer as "ridiculous".

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

Turning Cold Into Gold

Long Awaited Upside

It has been a very cold winter. JPMorgan (JPM) thinks that could get Compass Minerals (CMP) running hot. 

Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas recently lifted his rating of the industrial salt stock to Overweight, and upped his price target to $15, representing more than 30% upside from current prices. 

Back in the Black

Compass has been bogged down by a whole host of issues, including fines and lawsuits from the SEC, quality control issues, and failed efforts to produce lithium. It also put an end to its dividend last year and recently downgraded its full-year earnings guidance.

In other words, the stock has not been on a hot streak. It has dropped more than 80% over the past five years. But if JPM is correct, it may be about to turn a corner.

Zekauskas believes Compass Minerals’ balance sheet is improving and he foresees positive free cash flow on the horizon. Two years of unseasonably warm weather resulted in a build-up of inventory, leading to negative cash flow, the analyst argues. But as inventories drop, so do costs. 

Weather’s Changing

Compass is reducing its inventories, which the analyst believes should do the trick. If so, it could result in earnings growth in 2026. 

But the biggest change for the company could be the changing weather. Zekauskas says snow management, Compass’ core business, is in for a banner year.

According to the analyst, October and November’s warmth led to conservative earnings estimates. Now the ongoing cold spell could help it beat them handily.

Are you bullish or bearish on Compass Minerals (CMP) over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

WaPo: The Senate confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health Secretary, despite opposition from every Democrat and Senator Mitch McConnell.

AP: High prices remain Trump’s major economic challenge, as inflation has risen to 3% since the November election, despite his promises to lower costs.

Reuters: Nissan and Honda ended $60B merger talks, leaving the former facing uncertainty as legacy automakers face pressure from Chinese rivals.

WSJ: Fearing tariffs, JPMorgan and others are flying gold bars from London to New York on passenger planes to capitalize on record-high gold prices.

Forbes: Robinhood has become the largest traditional broker for crypto, particularly meme coins like Dogecoin, as it courts “dumb money”.

WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Arm Holdings (ARM) over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said:

  • 🐂 Bullish — “They’re 1 of the next top 7 and will go a lot higher with a split.”

  • 🐻 Bearish — “Need to get through the obstacles.”

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