🧪 Biotech's Boiling Point

Plus, Katy Perry... in space!

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S&P 500 Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

All Stock Heatmap. Credit: Finviz

Global ADR snapshot. Credit: Finviz

MARKET MOVERS

Ford, Goldman, Palantir

$F ( ▼ 2.68% ) / $GM ( ▼ 1.33% ) / $STLA ( ▼ 0.11% ) Auto stocks rise as Trump says he wants to ‘help’ some car companies (CNBC)

$GS ( ▲ 0.78% ) Goldman Sachs Trounces Views, Sees 'Markedly Different' Environment In Q2 (IBD)

$PLTR ( ▲ 6.24% ) Palantir stock jumps after NATO finalizes purchase of AI military system (YF)

$BABA ( ▼ 1.48% ) / $PDD ( ▼ 0.75% ) Tariff relief on tech goods drives rally in China, Hong Kong shares (ET)

$PFE ( ▲ 1.45% ) / $VKTX ( ▼ 5.94% ) Pfizer Abandons Obesity Pill After Liver Injury in Setback (Bloomberg)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

CNBC: Some US businesses sued President Trump to block recent tariffs, arguing that trade deficits are not a national emergency.

CNN: Layoff fears rose to the highest level since the pandemic, with 44% of consumers expecting higher unemployment, per the New York Fed.

Reuters: NVIDIA $NVDA ( ▲ 1.35% ) announced plans to build up to $500B worth of AI servers in the US over the next four years.

WSJ: US orders at China’s wholesale hub have abruptly stopped as rising tariffs make exporting everyday goods like socks unprofitable.

YF: Fed Governor Chris Waller warned that new tariffs could become the biggest economic shock in decades.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

Biotech’s Boiling Point

Deepening Struggles

The US biotech sector, already battered by years of turmoil, is now facing a fresh round of setbacks. The combined impact of Health Secretary RFK Jr.’s overhaul of health agencies and high interest rates have caused the sector to underperform the broader market. 

On the flip side, the industry has avoided being caught up in the crossfire of Donald Trump’s tariff war, at least so far. However, its expensive funding, political uncertainty, and long waits for returns have left hundreds of companies trading below their cash values.

How should investors think about this shaky sector?

Political Problems

Biotech was already in crisis mode prior to the 2024 election, hampered by funding issues, layoffs, and shelved projects. The SPDR Biotech ETF $XBI ( 0.0% ) has dropped 14% over the past five years, a period in which the S&P 500 gained nearly 89%. 

Now, RFK Jr has fired FDA official Dr. Peter Marks, while conducting mass layoffs at the Department of Health and Human Services. Investors are also concerned that new drug approvals may be affected.

Additionally, Trump is expected to announce pharmaceutical tariffs in the weeks to come.

Glimmers of Hope

Despite all those headwinds, there are some glimmers of hope. Bipartisan efforts are underway to keep the US at the forefront of the biotech industry globally. There is a current proposal for a $15 billion investment into research and manufacturing.  

The FDA continues to approve drugs at a steady pace, and its new leadership appointments have been strong, according to the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ also notes that a handful of large-cap firms are performing well, and several small caps like CG Oncology $CGON ( ▲ 0.25% ) and BridgeBio $BBIO ( ▼ 1.75% ) have promising products in the works.

Whatever way you look at it, biotech seems to be nearing a boiling point. But does that mean it’s about to alchemize into something fruitful — or blow up in investors’ faces?

Are you bullish or bearish on the biotech sector over the next 12 months?

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ON OUR RADAR

NYT: Harvard University won’t comply with Trump administration demands for DEI reform, imperiling its federal funding.

AP: The UK economy saw stronger-than-expected growth of 0.5% in February, just before global markets were shaken by Trump’s tariffs.

Reuters: Meta $META ( ▼ 1.87% ) CEO Mark Zuckerberg took the stand in a landmark antitrust trial, rejecting claims that Meta built an illegal monopoly.

WSJ: In a meeting with Trump, El Salvador President Bukele said he lacks the authority to reverse the mistaken deportation of a man from the US.

The Verge: Pop star Katy Perry went to space today, joining an all-female crew on a mission from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

FRIDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on Toast (TOST) over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜⬜ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said: 

  • 🐂 Bullish — “Subscription-based payment platform with restaurants and bars in the ecosystem and not likely switching it up. As long as it works, they'll keep using it.”

  •  🐻 Bearish — “TOST will be toast within 6 Qs”

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