Happy Wednesday afternoon to everyone on The Street. Here's a snapshot of where markets ended the trading session, plus tomorrow's trade idea delivered to you today.

• 🟥 | US stocks fell sharply today after one of the world’s most valuable companies issued a stark tariff warning.

• 📈 | One Notable Gainer: Travelers Companies $TRV ( ▲ 1.34% ) was one of the few gainers on the Dow today following a blockbuster earnings beat in the face of serious headwinds like the California wildfires.

• 📉 | One Notable Decliner: The aforementioned mega-cap, NVIDIA $NVDA ( ▼ 2.87% ) , saw its stock fall sharply after disclosing a quarterly charge of around $5.5B stemming from H20 GPU exports to China and elsewhere.

MARKET MOVERS

Apple, Tesla, Hertz

$AAPL ( ▲ 1.4% ) Whatever Trump decides on tariffs, Apple and Tim Cook lose (Mashable)

$TSLA ( ▼ 0.08% ) Tesla Slumps Below 50% Share of California’s Electric Car Market (Bloomberg)

$HTZ ( ▲ 44.31% ) Activist Investor Bill Ackman Takes Hertz Stake, Shares Soar (WSJ)

$PDD ( ▲ 1.45% ) Temu slashes US ad spending, plummets in App Store rankings after Trump China tariffs (CNBC)

$DIS ( ▲ 2.47% ) Disney Stock Has Had a Brutal 2025. Why Trump’s Trade War Could Make It Worse. (Barron’s)

OVERHEARD ON THE STREET

YF: Amid its record surge, gold overtook the Magnificent 7 tech stocks as the most crowded trade on Wall Street.

CNBC: Customs and Border Protection has collected some $500M from President Trump’s latest tariffs, far below his estimates of $2B per day.

Reuters: US retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the largest gain in more than two years, likely driven by pre-tariff buying.

WSJ: Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that a trade war would create a “challenging scenario” for the central bank.

AP: Trump said he will personally join trade talks with Japan, accompanied by Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick.

TOMORROW’S TRADE IDEA, TODAY

This Stock Could Be a Doomsday Bunker

Recessionary Safe Haven?

The current economic and market outlook is, to say the least, uncertain.

As investors and economists wait to see what the ultimate ramifications of tariffs will be, Bank of America $BAC ( ▲ 0.21% ) has pinpointed a stock it believes could fare well if the end result is a recession. 

According to the bank, Church & Dwight $CHD ( ▲ 2.34% ) — which owns consumer brands like Arm & Hammer, Kaboom, and Orange Glo — is poised to thrive should the market take a turn for the worse.

Outperforms in Tough Times

BoA analyst Anna Lizzul recently upgraded the stock to Buy, with a $125 price target, implying more than 21% upside from today’s close.

According to Lizzul, the stock has outperformed during each of the last four recessions, by an eye-popping average of 22% better than the broader market.

It’s already showing similar resilience in the present downturn. The stock is down less than 2% YTD, while the S&P 500 has dropped more than 10% over the same period. 

The analyst believes Church & Dwight has a strong risk-reward profile, thanks to its improving volumes and market share gains. Its portfolio comprises 36% value and 64% premium, Lizzul added, ideal for a recessionary environment.

Wheeling & Dealing

Consumer packaged goods companies don’t always do well in downturns, as shoppers often turn to store brands when cutting back. But Lizzul argues Church & Dwight doesn’t face much risk there either, as only 5 of its 18 categories have competition on that front. 

She also thinks it could get some tailwinds from M&A. With deals starting to pick up, the analyst expects it to ink more than one acquisition this year. Its consensus price target is $108, below BoA’s expectations, but still representing a fair amount of growth.

Investors have shown some cautious optimism in the wake of the latest tariff pause. But many are still doomsday prepping, just to be safe. According to BoA, Church & Dwight might be the perfect addition to your portfolio’s bug-out bag.

ON OUR RADAR

CNBC: OpenAI is in talks to acquire AI coding startup Windsurf, formerly known as Codeium, for about $3B.

Bloomberg: Trump’s move to cancel $400M in federal funding to elite universities is unsettling typically stable top-rated corporate bonds.

CNN: Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.42% ) faces a $6.6B class action lawsuit in Britain, alleging it abused its dominance in online search to inflate advertising prices.

Reuters: JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 1.02% ) CEO Jamie Dimon sold $31.5M worth of company shares, only his second sale since becoming CEO in 2005.

AP: China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1, driven by a surge in exports ahead of Trump’s steep tariff hikes.

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Are you bullish or bearish on the Magnificent 7 over the next 12 months?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐂 Bullish

🟨🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🐻 Bearish

And, in response, you said: 

• 🐂 Bullish — “Bullish on the Mag 5. Not Tesla or Apple.”

•  🐻 Bearish — “Trump will keep everything bearish.”